iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY)

The central bank’s job is never easier, but in the current climate, it’s unusually tricky.

At a time of increased uncertainty about inflation, the relatively elevated real yields available in inflation-indexed Treasuries offer a partial antidote of certainty for anxious investors.

Stocks rallied during the week as earnings reports were pretty good, with exceptions as always, and the economic news wasn’t bad either.

Since returning to the White House last month, President Trump has outlined a wave of policy changes, plans and comments that have roiled markets and shaken expectations about the economic outlook.

President Trump’s comments and executive orders have roiled markets and investor expectations, but from the vantage of the Treasury market a relative calm prevails.

CAD is being led lower by falling yield spreads.

Rates seem to be forming their own very impressive topping patterns, similar to what happened before Covid.

President Trump’s first week on the job was a good one for markets. The S&P 500 was up 1.75%, with tech stocks taking the lead as the President welcomed a group of leading technology CEOs to D.C. to announce big investments in AI.

Treasury yields have taken a break from the sharp upswing that’s dominated trading in recent months.

The spectre of U.S. debt ceiling debates sharpens investor focus, adding another layer of caution to Monday's international market activities while the U.S. markets are closed for the MLk holiday.

The risk of reflation has been bubbling for several months and yesterday’s economic news on prices in the services sector fueled new concerns.

There are many reasons to question a bullish outlook at the start of the year, but the gravity-defying trend remains intact overall.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

Fed funds futures are still leaning into expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce its target rate next by a quarter point, but the related confidence of the forecast is slipping.

The Fed is widely expected to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25 basis points today. If we were on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), we would strongly dissent in favor of a pause.

In this week's video, we'll review the latest charts and data to help us answer the question,

As inflation risks for the United States economy come back online, the trade for a yield curve steepening becomes the best alternative for investors to watch

Fresh doubts are bubbling as the market reconsiders a range of risk factors, including renewed skepticism about the Federal Reserve’s commitment to cutting interest rates.

Investor sentiment has wobbled recently, but there’s still room for debate on whether the appetite for risk has peaked for this market cycle.

In this week's video, we'll review the latest charts to help us answer the question - are you missing the big picture?

The financial media appear to once again be leading the public astray about the Yield Curve situation.

Recent market volatility has raised questions about the staying power of the rally for global assets that began in late-2023.

The markets are pricing in the first rate cut in more than four years. As of this writing, it looks like we can expect a 50-basis-point cut on Wednesday, with a 50% probability of a 1.25% cut by December.